badness <---- Runner Up ----> raw input goal GE win /Biden /xD /Spanky /Rhonda /xR nomination win raw badness 0.1% 50.0% 43.1% 43.2% Biden 0000 0000 25.6% 12.4% 5.1% 75.8% 76.0% 76.0% −0.2% 0.3% 15.0% 12.9% 13.3% xD 0000 0000 3.9% 2.4% 7.0% 24.1% 24.0% 24.0% 0.1% −0.6% 30.0% 25.9% 25.3% Spanky 18.1% 7.1% 0000 0000 0000 54.8% 54.8% 57.0% −0.1% −0.4% 16.0% 13.8% 13.4% Rhonda 10.9% 2.5% 0000 0000 0000 28.2% 27.9% 29.0% 0.3% 0.5% 5.0% 4.3% 4.8% xR 3.6% 1.2% 0000 0000 0000 16.9% 17.3% 18.0% −0.4% 116.0% 99.9% somebody GE runner up ====== transpose ====== nominated 32.7% Biden 0000 0000 18.1% 10.9% 3.6% 100.0% :D 10.8% xD 0000 0000 7.1% 2.5% 1.2% 104.0% :R 29.5% Spanky 25.6% 3.9% 0000 0000 0000 14.8% Rhonda 12.4% 2.4% 0000 0000 0000 GE = general election 12.1% xR 5.1% 7.0% 0000 0000 0000 Microstate probabilities are shown in the heavily-outlined box. −0.1% 100.00% 99.9% The state space is the direct product (GE winner) × (GE runner up) badness A candidate's chance of winning is obtained by summing over all possible opponents. −0.1% 56.0% 56.6% 56.4% : some D win 710 480 260 A party's chance is obtained by summing over all possible nominees of that party. 0.0% 43.0% 43.4% 43.5% : some R win 645 350 610 We can infer that the GE contenders won their party's primary. 99.0% GE strength is the conditional probability of winning, conditioned on having won the nomination. Microstate values are adjusted so that the macrostates match what the prediction markets are saying. Conditional win 28.0% 14.0% 6.0% overall badness i.e. GE strength 6.0% 3.6% 9.0% Objective function 56.9% Biden 0.012% 55.1% xD 560 710 46.1% Spanky 321 250 47.5% Rhonda 115 240 28.5% xR 30000 slider normalization 20.0% 9.5% 12.0% 3.3% 4.0% 2.0% /