Sheet1

badness						<---- Runner Up ---->
	raw input	goal	GE win		/Biden	/xD	/Spanky	/Rhonda	/xR		nomination win		raw	badness
0.1%	50.0%	43.1%	43.2%	Biden	0000	0000	25.6%	12.4%	5.1%		75.8%	76.0%	76.0%	−0.2%
0.3%	15.0%	12.9%	13.3%	xD	0000	0000	3.9%	2.4%	7.0%		24.1%	24.0%	24.0%	0.1%
−0.6%	30.0%	25.9%	25.3%	Spanky	18.1%	7.1%	0000	0000	0000		54.8%	54.8%	57.0%	−0.1%
−0.4%	16.0%	13.8%	13.4%	Rhonda	10.9%	2.5%	0000	0000	0000		28.2%	27.9%	29.0%	0.3%
0.5%	5.0%	4.3%	4.8%	xR	3.6%	1.2%	0000	0000	0000		16.9%	17.3%	18.0%	−0.4%
	116.0%		99.9%
											somebody
			GE runner up			====== transpose ======					nominated
			32.7%	Biden	0000	0000	18.1%	10.9%	3.6%		100.0%	:D
			10.8%	xD	0000	0000	7.1%	2.5%	1.2%		104.0%	:R
			29.5%	Spanky	25.6%	3.9%	0000	0000	0000
			14.8%	Rhonda	12.4%	2.4%	0000	0000	0000		GE = general election
			12.1%	xR	5.1%	7.0%	0000	0000	0000		Microstate probabilities are shown in the heavily-outlined box.
−0.1%		100.00%	99.9%								The state space is the direct product (GE winner) × (GE runner up)
badness											A candidate's chance of winning is obtained by summing over all possible opponents.
−0.1%	56.0%	56.6%	56.4%	: some D win			710	480	260		A party's chance is obtained by summing over all possible nominees of that party.
0.0%	43.0%	43.4%	43.5%	: some R win			645	350	610		We can infer that the GE contenders won their party's primary.
	99.0%										GE strength is the conditional probability of winning, conditioned on having won the nomination.
											Microstate values are adjusted so that the macrostates match what the prediction markets are saying.
			Conditional win				28.0%	14.0%	6.0%
overall badness			i.e. GE strength				6.0%	3.6%	9.0%
Objective function			56.9%	Biden
0.012%			55.1%	xD	560	710
			46.1%	Spanky	321	250
			47.5%	Rhonda	115	240
			28.5%	xR				30000	slider normalization
					20.0%	9.5%
					12.0%	3.3%
					4.0%	2.0%
					/