2020 Senate Vulnerability

Republicans

#	First	Last	P	Vul	St	Cls	ReEl	PVI	NetApp	Nom1	Nom2
1	Susan	Collins	R	†††	ME	II		-3	NULL	0.114	-0.537
2	Patrick	Toomey	R	†††	PA	III	nrr	1	NULL	0.646	-0.288
3	Joni	Ernst	R	†††	IA	II		2.5	NULL	0.531	-0.051
4	Rob	Portman	R	†††	OH	III	nrr	2.69	NULL	0.372	-0.233
5	Richard	Burr	R	†††	NC	III	nrr	3.31	NULL	0.45	-0.053
6	Thom	Tillis	R	†††	NC	II		3.31	NULL	0.426	0.069
7	John	Cornyn	R	††	TX	II		5.5	NULL	0.492	-0.009
8	Lindsey	Graham	R	†	SC	II		7.86	NULL	0.405	-0.17
9	Roy	Blunt	R	†	MO	III	nrr	8.75	NULL	0.426	0.275
10	Dan	Sullivan	R	†	AK	II		9	NULL	0.47	0.062
11	Cindy	Hyde-Smith	R	†	MS	II		9	NULL	0.384	0.357
12	Bill	Cassidy	R		LA	II		11	NULL	0.457	-0.095
13	Steve	Daines	R		MT	II		11	NULL	0.555	-0.119
14	Bill	Hagerty	R		TN	II		12.67	NULL	0.781	-0.615
15	Roger	Marshall	R		KS	II		13.25	NULL	0.542	0.134
16	Ben	Sasse	R		NE	II		14	NULL	0.766	-0.213
17	Mike	Rounds	R		SD	II		14	NULL	0.406	0.126
18	Richard	Shelby	R		AL	III	nrr	14.43	NULL	0.43	0.523
19	Tommy	Tuberville	R		AL	II		14.43	NULL	0.767	0.212
20	Tom	Cotton	R		AR	II		15	NULL	0.575	0.062
21	Mitch	McConnell	R		KY	II		15.67	NULL	0.401	0.008
22	James	Risch	R		ID	II		19	NULL	0.623	0.551
23	James	Inhofe	R		OK	II		19.6	NULL	0.554	0.043
24	Shelley	Capito	R		WV	II		19.67	NULL	0.263	0.059
25	Cynthia	Lummis	R		WY	II		25	NULL	0.674	-0.392

Of the 23 R-held senate seats that will be up for election in 2020, you might think, based on Cook PVI alone, that 5 of them are distinctly vulnerable (namely the ones marked “†††” in the table). Another 3 are definitely competitive (“††”), while another 3 are at least somewhat competitive (“†”). This gives a total of 11.

Note: Keep in mind that PVI is measured relative to the country as a whole -- which leans toward the Ds. So the median competitive district is about R+5. The closer it is to R+5, the more competititive it is. As a consequence:

Any R-held seat that is bluer than R+10 should be considered at least somewhat vulnerable.

Any D-held seat that is redder than 0 should be considered at least somewhat vulnerable.

Everybody

#	First	Last	P	Vul	St	Cls	ReEl	PVI	NetApp	Nom1	Nom2
1	Alex	Padilla	D		CA	III	short appt	-12.91	NULL	-0.428	0.14
2	Edward	Markey	D		MA	II		-12.33	NULL	-0.512	-0.457
3	Jack	Reed	D		RI	II		-10	NULL	-0.367	-0.171
4	Cory	Booker	D		NJ	II		-8.08	NULL	-0.592	-0.257
5	Richard	Durbin	D		IL	II		-7.89	NULL	-0.348	-0.307
6	Christopher	Coons	D		DE	II		-6	NULL	-0.229	-0.216
7	Jeff	Merkley	D		OR	II		-4.4	NULL	-0.44	-0.744
8	Susan	Collins	R	†††	ME	II		-3	NULL	0.114	-0.537
9	Ben	Lujan	D		NM	II		-3	NULL	-0.367	0.015
10	Gary	Peters	D		MI	II		-1.36	NULL	-0.245	-0.187
11	Tina	Smith	D		MN	II		-0.75	NULL	-0.396	-0.058
12	Mark	Warner	D		VA	II		-0.73	NULL	-0.202	-0.036
13	John	Hickenlooper	D		CO	II		-0.71	NULL	-0.206	0.254
14	Jeanne	Shaheen	D		NH	II		0	NULL	-0.238	-0.141
15	Patrick	Toomey	R	†††	PA	III	nrr	1	NULL	0.646	-0.288
16	Joni	Ernst	R	†††	IA	II		2.5	NULL	0.531	-0.051
17	Rob	Portman	R	†††	OH	III	nrr	2.69	NULL	0.372	-0.233
18	Richard	Burr	R	†††	NC	III	nrr	3.31	NULL	0.45	-0.053
19	Thom	Tillis	R	†††	NC	II		3.31	NULL	0.426	0.069
20	Jon	Ossoff	D	†††	GA	II		5.29	NULL	-0.428	0.14
21	John	Cornyn	R	††	TX	II		5.5	NULL	0.492	-0.009
22	Lindsey	Graham	R	†	SC	II		7.86	NULL	0.405	-0.17
23	Roy	Blunt	R	†	MO	III	nrr	8.75	NULL	0.426	0.275
24	Dan	Sullivan	R	†	AK	II		9	NULL	0.47	0.062
25	Cindy	Hyde-Smith	R	†	MS	II		9	NULL	0.384	0.357
26	Bill	Cassidy	R		LA	II		11	NULL	0.457	-0.095
27	Steve	Daines	R		MT	II		11	NULL	0.555	-0.119
28	Bill	Hagerty	R		TN	II		12.67	NULL	0.781	-0.615
29	Roger	Marshall	R		KS	II		13.25	NULL	0.542	0.134
30	Mike	Rounds	R		SD	II		14	NULL	0.406	0.126
31	Ben	Sasse	R		NE	II		14	NULL	0.766	-0.213
32	Richard	Shelby	R		AL	III	nrr	14.43	NULL	0.43	0.523
33	Tommy	Tuberville	R		AL	II		14.43	NULL	0.767	0.212
34	Tom	Cotton	R		AR	II		15	NULL	0.575	0.062
35	Mitch	McConnell	R		KY	II		15.67	NULL	0.401	0.008
36	James	Risch	R		ID	II		19	NULL	0.623	0.551
37	James	Inhofe	R		OK	II		19.6	NULL	0.554	0.043
38	Shelley	Capito	R		WV	II		19.67	NULL	0.263	0.059
39	Cynthia	Lummis	R		WY	II		25	NULL	0.674	-0.392