| name | p | st | pviXXX | pp20 | OoS | vuln | nom1 | nom2 | C | ReEl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Carper | D | DE | -8.50 | -9.63 | 0.5 | -0.176 | -0.222 | I | ||
| Dianne Feinstein | D | CA | -15.41 | -14.91 | 0.4 | -0.267 | -0.183 | I | ||
| Christopher Murphy | D | CT | -9.10 | -10.2 | 0.4 | -0.269 | -0.195 | I | ||
| Maria Cantwell | D | WA | -8.10 | -9.93 | 0.4 | -0.304 | -0.42 | I | ||
| Benjamin Cardin | D | MD | -15.00 | -17.03 | 0.3 | -0.319 | -0.223 | I | ||
| Sheldon Whitehouse | D | RI | -12.50 | -10.6 | 0.3 | -0.355 | -0.078 | I | ||
| Robert Menendez | D | NJ | -10.58 | -8.07 | 0.2 | -0.366 | -0.124 | I | ||
| Angus King | I | ME | -5.50 | -4.67 | 0.2 | -0.157 | -0.226 | I | ||
| Kirsten Gillibrand | D | NY | -15.76 | -11.72 | 0.2 | -0.475 | -0.422 | I | ||
| Mazie Hirono | D | HI | -20.50 | -15.03 | 0.2 | -0.512 | -0.084 | I | ||
| Tim Kaine | D | VA | -3.23 | -5.15 | 0.1 | -0.243 | -0.06 | I | ||
| Bernard Sanders | I | VT | -17.50 | -18.3 | 0.1 | -0.529 | -0.389 | I | ||
| Amy Klobuchar | D | MN | -3.25 | -3.64 | 0.0 | defend? | -0.284 | -0.379 | I | |
| Martin Heinrich | D | NM | -5.50 | -5.52 | 0.0 | -0.328 | -0.022 | I | ||
| Kyrsten Sinema | D | AZ | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.1 | defend | -0.101 | 0.063 | I | |
| Elizabeth Warren | D | MA | -14.83 | -17.12 | -0.1 | -0.773 | -0.308 | I | ||
| Debbie Stabenow | D | MI | -3.86 | -1.41 | -0.2 | defend | -0.343 | -0.013 | I | |
| Jacky Rosen | D | NV | -4.75 | -1.22 | -0.2 | defend | -0.285 | 0.287 | I | |
| Robert Casey | D | PA | -1.50 | -0.59 | -0.3 | defend | -0.315 | 0.193 | I | |
| Tammy Baldwin | D | WI | -2.75 | -0.32 | -0.5 | defend | -0.493 | -0.139 | I | |
| Sherrod Brown | D | OH | 0.19 | 4.08 | -0.7 | defend | -0.428 | -0.11 | I | |
| Joe Manchin | D | WV | 17.17 | 19.8 | -0.7 | defend | -0.055 | 0.444 | I | |
| Jon Tester | D | MT | 8.50 | 8.4 | -0.8 | defend | -0.216 | 0.146 | I |
| name | p | st | pviXXX | pp20 | OoS | vuln | nom1 | nom2 | C | ReEl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | R | TX | 3.00 | 2.83 | 0.6 | flip? | 0.831 | -0.284 | I | |
| Rick Scott | R | FL | -1.91 | 1.69 | 0.5 | flip | 0.587 | -0.009 | I | |
| Mike Braun | R | IN | 6.61 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | I | nrr | |
| Josh Hawley | R | MO | 6.25 | 7.84 | 0.1 | 0.636 | -0.385 | I | ||
| Marsha Blackburn | R | TN | 10.17 | 11.83 | 0.0 | 0.62 | 0.133 | I | ||
| John Barrasso | R | WY | 22.50 | 22.48 | -0.1 | 0.541 | 0.249 | I | ||
| Roger Wicker | R | MS | 6.50 | 8.38 | -0.2 | 0.376 | 0.347 | I | ||
| Deb Fischer | R | NE | 11.50 | 9.78 | -0.2 | 0.47 | 0.331 | I | ||
| Kevin Cramer | R | ND | 13.50 | 17.22 | -0.3 | 0.389 | 0.294 | I | ||
| Mitt Romney | R | UT | 17.50 | 10.69 | -0.3 | 0.36 | 0.606 | I |
| name | p | st | pviXXX | pp20 | OoS | vuln | nom1 | nom2 | C | ReEl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | R | TX | 3.00 | 2.83 | 0.6 | flip? | 0.831 | -0.284 | I | |
| Thomas Carper | D | DE | -8.50 | -9.63 | 0.5 | -0.176 | -0.222 | I | ||
| Rick Scott | R | FL | -1.91 | 1.69 | 0.5 | flip | 0.587 | -0.009 | I | |
| Dianne Feinstein | D | CA | -15.41 | -14.91 | 0.4 | -0.267 | -0.183 | I | ||
| Maria Cantwell | D | WA | -8.10 | -9.93 | 0.4 | -0.304 | -0.42 | I | ||
| Christopher Murphy | D | CT | -9.10 | -10.2 | 0.4 | -0.269 | -0.195 | I | ||
| Benjamin Cardin | D | MD | -15.00 | -17.03 | 0.3 | -0.319 | -0.223 | I | ||
| Mike Braun | R | IN | 6.61 | 8.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | I | nrr | |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | D | RI | -12.50 | -10.6 | 0.3 | -0.355 | -0.078 | I | ||
| Robert Menendez | D | NJ | -10.58 | -8.07 | 0.2 | -0.366 | -0.124 | I | ||
| Mazie Hirono | D | HI | -20.50 | -15.03 | 0.2 | -0.512 | -0.084 | I | ||
| Angus King | I | ME | -5.50 | -4.67 | 0.2 | -0.157 | -0.226 | I | ||
| Kirsten Gillibrand | D | NY | -15.76 | -11.72 | 0.2 | -0.475 | -0.422 | I | ||
| Josh Hawley | R | MO | 6.25 | 7.84 | 0.1 | 0.636 | -0.385 | I | ||
| Bernard Sanders | I | VT | -17.50 | -18.3 | 0.1 | -0.529 | -0.389 | I | ||
| Tim Kaine | D | VA | -3.23 | -5.15 | 0.1 | -0.243 | -0.06 | I | ||
| Amy Klobuchar | D | MN | -3.25 | -3.64 | 0.0 | defend? | -0.284 | -0.379 | I | |
| Marsha Blackburn | R | TN | 10.17 | 11.83 | 0.0 | 0.62 | 0.133 | I | ||
| Martin Heinrich | D | NM | -5.50 | -5.52 | 0.0 | -0.328 | -0.022 | I | ||
| Kyrsten Sinema | D | AZ | -0.17 | -0.16 | -0.1 | defend | -0.101 | 0.063 | I | |
| John Barrasso | R | WY | 22.50 | 22.48 | -0.1 | 0.541 | 0.249 | I | ||
| Elizabeth Warren | D | MA | -14.83 | -17.12 | -0.1 | -0.773 | -0.308 | I | ||
| Deb Fischer | R | NE | 11.50 | 9.78 | -0.2 | 0.47 | 0.331 | I | ||
| Roger Wicker | R | MS | 6.50 | 8.38 | -0.2 | 0.376 | 0.347 | I | ||
| Debbie Stabenow | D | MI | -3.86 | -1.41 | -0.2 | defend | -0.343 | -0.013 | I | |
| Jacky Rosen | D | NV | -4.75 | -1.22 | -0.2 | defend | -0.285 | 0.287 | I | |
| Robert Casey | D | PA | -1.50 | -0.59 | -0.3 | defend | -0.315 | 0.193 | I | |
| Kevin Cramer | R | ND | 13.50 | 17.22 | -0.3 | 0.389 | 0.294 | I | ||
| Mitt Romney | R | UT | 17.50 | 10.69 | -0.3 | 0.36 | 0.606 | I | ||
| Tammy Baldwin | D | WI | -2.75 | -0.32 | -0.5 | defend | -0.493 | -0.139 | I | |
| Sherrod Brown | D | OH | 0.19 | 4.08 | -0.7 | defend | -0.428 | -0.11 | I | |
| Joe Manchin | D | WV | 17.17 | 19.8 | -0.7 | defend | -0.055 | 0.444 | I | |
| Jon Tester | D | MT | 8.50 | 8.4 | -0.8 | defend | -0.216 | 0.146 | I |
I know of 33 seats that will be contested: 21D + 2I + 10R. Retirements will add to this.
Among the D seats, 8 or 9 will be hard to defend, whereas among the R seats only 1 or maybe 2 will be hard to defend.
The situation is lopsided because these guys are in senate class I, which came in via the 2018 midterm elections. There was quite a lot of backlash against Orangemandias, which allowed the Ds to pick up several seats in red or marginal states.
The pp20 is simply the presidential polarity in the 2020 election. It is half the margin of victory in the two-party race. For example, if Biden got 63.1% of the two-party vote, that would give a pp20=-13.1.
The list is sorted in order of OoS, which stands for Out of Step. It is a rough measure of how far right the senator's voting record is, relative to what you would expect based on the state's pp20. This is not particularly relevant in the case of a retiring senator, but mostly harmless.
Beware that the Cook PVI hasn't been updated in a long time and is seriously out of date. The column marked pviXXX is the old PVI minus 2.5, which is the best PVI-based prediction of the current pp20. A race with a pp20 of zero should be a tossup, given comparable candidates and comparable funding. Any D with a pp20 on the positive side of -2.5 is vulnerable. Any R with a pp20 on the low side of +2.5 is vulnerable.
The C column indicates the senate class. The ReEl column contans a notation if the senator is not running for re-election.